2018 NFL and NCAA Wagering Tips and Trends


Senior Member
Rich Green is the editor of http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com , a free sports handicapping and information service. He has been a top ranked handicapper for over 40 years. He specializes in Football, Basketball and Baseball, all the major sports, and has won numerous contests in each.



2018 NFL and NCAA Football Against The Spread (ATS) Trends

Here is a look before the 2018 College Football season starts on lined teams and some basic ATS trends:

Air Force -- 8-1 ATS as Dogs >=7 pts, 0-9 ATS vs Wyoming

Akron -- 3-0 ATS vs Miami-Ohio, 1-9 ATS as Favorites >10 pts

Alabama -- 8-0 ATS as non-Conf Favs <21.5 pts, 0-7 ATS Home off non-Conference Play

Appalachian State -- 3-0 ATS versus Georgia Southern, 0-5 ATS off a shutout win

Arizona -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS as Road Dogs >=15 pts, 0-8 ATS after playing UCLA

Arizona State -- New Head Coach, 12-0 ATS vs Washington, 0-8 ATS on weekdays

Arkansas -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS vs Ole Miss, 0-5 ATS after allowing 10 or less pts

Arkansas State -- 8-0 ATS vs UL-Monroe, 1-5 ATS off a Double Digit ATS loss

Army -- 4-0 ATS vs Navy, 0-6 ATS before playing Navy

Auburn -- 3-0 ATS vs Ole Miss, 1-6 ATS before playing Tennessee

Ball State -- 12-0 ATS after playing Eastern Michigan, 0-4 ATS vs Western Michigan

Baylor -- 6-0 ATS versus Kansas, 0-4 ATS after playing Kansas State

Boise State -- 4-0 ATS as Dogs off a SU and ATS loss, 1-6 ATS vs New Mexico

Boston College -- 5-0 ATS vs Temple, 0-4 ATS vs opponents with Revenge

Bowling Green -- 3-0 ATS vs Kent, 1-7 ATS at Home with Rest

Buffalo -- 4-0 ATS vs Bowling Green, 0-3 ATS vs Miami-Ohio

BYU -- 7-1 ATS before playing Utah, 1-7 ATS with Rest

California -- 5-0 ATS vs Arizona, 1-6 ATS vs Oregon

Central Michigan -- 6-0 ATS after playing Ball State, 0-8 ATS vs Toledo

Charlotte -- 3-1 ATS with Rest, 1-8 ATS in non-Conference Play

Cincinnati -- 9-0 ATS at Home vs East Carolina, 1-8 ATS before playing East Carolina

Clemson -- 4-1 ATS vs Georgia Tech, 0-4 ATS vs Wake Forest

Coastal Carolina -- 4-2 ATS last six games, 0-2 ATS as Home Favorites

Colorado -- 4-0 ATS vs Cal, 0-8 ATS vs Washington

Colorado State -- 5-0 ATS vs Hawaii, 0-4 ATS as Bowlers

Connecticut -- 3-1 vs UCF, 1-8 ATS as beaten Favorites

Duke -- 4-0 ATS as Bowlers, 0-4 ATS vs Miami

East Carolina -- 4-1 ATS in Game Four, 2-11 ATS with Rest

Eastern Michigan -- 7-0 ATS after playing Toledo, 0-5 ATS after playing Ball State

Florida -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS before playing LSU, 1-7 ATS after scoring < a Touchdown

Florida Atlantic -- 4-1 ATS vs Western Kentucky, 2-8 ATS after allowing at least 35 pts

Florida International -- 5-0 ATS off a Double Digit SU loss, 1-5 ATS in last game of season

Florida State -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS vs below .500 opponents, 0-8 ATS after a SU Dog win

Fresno State -- 6-0 ATS vs New Mexico, 1-4 ATS vs UNLV

Georgia -- 6-0 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win, 2-11 ATS with Rest

Here is a look before the 2018 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:

Arizona -- New Head Coach, 12-0 ATS off a Double Digit ATS loss, 11-1 ATS as non-Division Home Dogs <7 pts, 4-11 ATS at Home, 0-6 ATS on Thursdays vs above average rivals

Atlanta -- 11-2 ATS on Thursdays, 8-0 ATS as Favorites off MNF, 0-5 ATS before playing on Thursday, 0-7 ATS after playing Tampa Bay

Baltimore -- 5-0 ATS as Division Dogs >3 pts, 5-0 ATS vs Cleveland, 1-7 ATS before playing Pittsburgh, 0-5 ATS Home vs the AFC West

Buffalo -- 6-1 ATS before playing New England, 5-1 ATS as Favorites, 0-4 ATS at Home vs New England, 1-9 ATS at Home off a Double Digit ATS win

Carolina -- 4-0 ATS vs Washington, 7-1 ATS before playing on Thursday, 0-6 ATS vs Pittsburgh, 1-5 ATS before playing Tampa Bay

Chargers -- 16-1 ATS vs AFC South, 4-0 ATS vs San Francisco, 0-9 ATS vs rivals with Rest, 0-4 ATS before Bye Week

Chicago -- New Head Coach, 16-4 ATS before playing Detroit, 6-1 ATS after playing Minnesota, 1-8 ATS at San Francisco, 1-11 ATS before playing Minnesota

Cincinnati -- 13-1 ATS as non-Division Home Dogs, 6-0 ATS before playing Pittsburgh, 2-9 ATS vs opponents with Rest, 1-8 ATS at the AFC East

Cleveland -- 3-0 ATS vs Kansas City, 6-0 ATS vs the Chargers, 0-5 ATS at Home vs Baltimore, 1-11 ATS versus the NFC

Dallas -- 6-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs, 10-1 ATS with Rest and Revenge, 1-9 ATS vs the NFC South, 1-7 ATS in Thursday Home games

Denver -- 9-2 ATS on Thursdays, 8-0 ATS as Division Road Favorites >3 pts, 0-5 vs Kansas City, 1-6 ATS after playing Chargers

2018 NFL AND NCAA Football Wagering Tips
The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football. Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as John Holliday, Paul Johnson, Bill Belichick and anyone named Harbaugh among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years.

Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games. The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and West. So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team.

If Seattle for example, early in the season, plays Arizona this week and San Francisco in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games. But if the in-between game is against say Chicago, a lesser out of Division team, be careful! Seattle will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week. Starters may be pulled early against Chicago, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one.

Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'. The team usually wins, but fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps off of Seattle the following week against San Francisco because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!

Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything. When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ½ to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.

Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line. This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game. I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it. They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet. They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.

Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2018 Football Wagering Season! Make sure to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly, FREE Winners!

--Rich Green



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